Asian Trade Is Expanding Despite Geopolitical Tensions
“We don’t do sanctions …” was a calm response, with a disarming smile, of an ASEAN (an association of ten Southeast Asian nations) official to western demands to punish and expel one of its member-countries allegedly violating a democratic code of statecraft. Americans and Europeans were als...
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China Is Open for Business
Ever since China’s paramount leader Deng Xiao Ping began his relentless drive for economic development in late 1970s, Beijing has been offering a de-risking masterclass on trade and incoming foreign direct investments. And the long march from sweatshops and smokestacks to productive agriculture, h...
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America’s Monetary, Fiscal and Trade Policies Must – and Will – Change
The economy is currently held together by a roughly neutral monetary policy that ignores inflation and monetizes an irresponsibly loose fiscal policy. The markets and the mainstream media are supporting the idea that we shall somehow muddle through the next elections in early November. After that ...
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Geopolitical Trade Fragmentation Is Amplifying
Trade and investment flows between the U.S.-led West and the Global South – represented by the BRICS – are drying up in an increasingly direct, proxy and hybrid warfare. Ideological and political underpinnings to this epochal change of world economy stems from the U.S. assessment that its “rul...
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The G20 Should Remain an Economic Policy Coordination Forum
Last Wednesday, Brazil’s G20 presidency opened up as a slugfest about global governance – a totally inappropriate agenda item for the world’s only economic forum. Predictably, a gathering of foreign ministers (sic) had nothing to say about the ailing developed economies and their systematic ma...
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Japan and Indonesia Show a Sharply Contrasting Growth Outlook in East Asia
The world’s largest archipelago, consisting of 18 thousand islands and islets, is home to 278 millions of Indonesians and an economy that has grown at an average annual rate of 5% since the turn of the millennium. Over the same period, Japan’s economy lost its forward momentum under an increasin...
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The European Trading Bloc Is Mired in a Structural Stagnation
There was no economic growth in the European monetary union last year. And, on current evidence, the outlook is for a much worse downturn in the months ahead. The euro area’s monetary policy cannot help. The core inflation of nearly 4% and unit labor costs of 5.5% offer no room for increasing supp...
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World Economy Needs Wise Political Leadership
America’s current monetary management is a bright spot in global economic affairs. Struggling with a horrendous legacy of errors that led to the 2008 financial crisis and the Great Recession, followed by a long period of subsequent extraordinary credit creation, the U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) ...
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U.S. Trade Is Fragmenting Along the Global Security Fault Lines
Almost two-thirds of American foreign trade transactions in the first eleven months of this year took place with friends and treaty allies. Canada and Mexico account for about one-third of the U.S. foreign trade business, and there is every reason to expect that those two countries will remain Ameri...
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Weak U.S. Economic Fundamentals Are a Big Policy Challenge
Jobs and incomes are America’s principal election issues. This time will be no different, although wars in Europe and in the Middle East, the chaos of illegal immigration and drug smuggling along the border with Mexico will register with American voters. The real election mover, however, will rema...
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