Dr Ivanovitch - MSI Global
Dr. Michael Ivanovitch is an independent analyst focusing on world economy, geopolitics and investment strategy. He served as a senior economist at the OECD in Paris, international economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and taught economics at Columbia Business School. 
Daily updates on world economy
U.S. will avoid recession only if it can control food and energy prices.
Germany’s economic mismanagement is a huge problem for E.U. economy.
U.S.-China relations remain in a deeply hostile competitive mode.
The weak yen is an effort to restore Japan’s export-led growth.
  • USA GDP Q4

Recent Essays

The Dollar Remains the World’s Key Transactions Currency

The role of the dollar as a linchpin of the international monetary system is one of the most debated issues in the post-WWII global economy. Agreements on world trade and finance, adopted at Bretton Woods in July 1944, quickly proved inadequate. The system of fixed (but adjustable) exchange rates, and the fixed price of gold, […]

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The State of the U.S. Economy Is the Central Election Issue

Barring major security problems in the weeks and months ahead, jobs and incomes will stay at the top of people’s concerns in the run-up to November 5 elections. Opinion polls show that those two economic variables, and the quality of economic management, have already determined the voters’ election choices. All that is very different from […]

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The E.U. Economic Downturn Will Get Worse

Caught up in a war with Russia, and in increasing trade frictions with China, the current European leaders have ignored deteriorating economies at their own peril. Policies to restore the E.U.’s peace and security are nowhere in sight, and the broadening trade conflicts with China could easily get out of control. Epochal socio-political changes are […]

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U.S. and China Agree to Keep Talking

During an Asian forum last week American and Chinese defense ministers met to discuss their strategic and security problems. And with no progress on any of the issues, they decided to continue to talk and establish contacts between their field commanders to prevent “misunderstandings” and "miscalculations” that could lead to war in the South China […]

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A U.S. Election Year G7 Summit

With a focus on Global South, the war in Central Europe, trade embargoes and sanctions, the Group of Seven -- the West’s key economic and political forum -- will deliberate in its standard framework of “liberal democracies vs. autocracies” during the meeting in Italy on June 13 – 15, 2024. Put simply, that will be […]

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World Trade Grows Along Geopolitical Fault Lines

The wars in Europe and in the Middle East, ongoing military confrontations in the South China Sea and nuclear capable ballistic missile firings on the Korean Peninsula are all part of a global fight between West’s “liberal democracies” and “autocratic societies.” There is nothing “hybrid” or “proxy” here. It’s a shooting war -- with nukes […]

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The Yen Is Undermined by Structural Problems of Japanese Economy

Widespread market comments that a 5.3 percentage points interest rate differential favoring dollar assets is the main source of the yen’s intractable weakness is a typical simplification of Japan’s enduring and deep-rooted economic problems. The first symptoms of Japan’s deteriorating economic outlook emerged when its public debt as a share of GDP doubled to 80% […]

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U.S.-China Relations Are Opening a New Page in World Order

Military confrontations unfolding in Europe, Middle East and East Asia all come down to one crucially important bilateral relationship. Unable to put an end to those rapidly spreading wildfires, Washington is turning to Beijing for cooperation while leveling allegations that China is using “non-market” practices to manipulate the world system of commerce and finance. That, […]

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Worry Not About East Asia – Europe Is a Smoldering Powder Keg

A peaceful and prosperous East Asia is coalescing around a steadily growing Chinese economy and the region’s determination to foster cooperation and amity. ASEAN (ten Southeast Asian countries) and China now represent one-fourth of the world population and one-fifth of the global GDP. That huge and increasingly compact economic area follows its own business cycle […]

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Excessive Public Debt Relegates the U.S. to a Slow Growth Lane

It will take quite a bit of revenue raising and spending cuts just to stop the progression of America’s current $1.7 trillion budget deficits -- accounting for 6.3% of GDP. No political party contending for power in next November’s elections has made this national emergency part of its campaigning platform. But the strictly nonpartisan Congressional […]

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Asian Trade Is Expanding Despite Geopolitical Tensions

“We don’t do sanctions …” was a calm response, with a disarming smile, of an ASEAN (an association of ten Southeast Asian nations) official to western demands to punish and expel one of its member-countries allegedly violating a democratic code of statecraft. Americans and Europeans were also startled when ASEAN refused to yield to western […]

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China Is Open for Business

Ever since China’s paramount leader Deng Xiao Ping began his relentless drive for economic development in late 1970s, Beijing has been offering a de-risking masterclass on trade and incoming foreign direct investments. And the long march from sweatshops and smokestacks to productive agriculture, hi-tech manufacturing, modern infrastructure, “anti-access, area denial (A2AD)” defenses, moon shots and […]

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America’s Monetary, Fiscal and Trade Policies Must – and Will – Change

The economy is currently held together by a roughly neutral monetary policy that ignores inflation and monetizes an irresponsibly loose fiscal policy. The markets and the mainstream media are supporting the idea that we shall somehow muddle through the next elections in early November. After that – we shall see. Some might even say, like […]

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Geopolitical Trade Fragmentation Is Amplifying

Trade and investment flows between the U.S.-led West and the Global South – represented by the BRICS – are drying up in an increasingly direct, proxy and hybrid warfare. Ideological and political underpinnings to this epochal change of world economy stems from the U.S. assessment that its “rules based international order” is challenged by Russia […]

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The G20 Should Remain an Economic Policy Coordination Forum

Last Wednesday, Brazil’s G20 presidency opened up as a slugfest about global governance – a totally inappropriate agenda item for the world’s only economic forum. Predictably, a gathering of foreign ministers (sic) had nothing to say about the ailing developed economies and their systematic macroeconomic mismanagement. That, clearly, was not their brief. The only thing […]

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