Dr Ivanovitch - MSI Global
Dr. Michael Ivanovitch is an independent analyst focusing on world economy, geopolitics and investment strategy. He served as a senior economist at the OECD in Paris, international economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and taught economics at Columbia Business School. 
Daily updates on world economy
Rising U.S. inflation is a threat to economic growth
China’s huge and growing domestic market drives the economy
The euro area survives on easy money and not much else
Flattening U.S. yield curve does not reflect rising inflation

Recent Essays

Dollar Alternatives Are Becoming Technically and Politically Feasible

The increasing fragmentation of global trade and finance -- along the lines of interventionist liberal democracies and the rest of the world -- is impairing the role of the dollar as a unit of account, means of payment and a store of value. At the core of this rapidly unfolding process of economic realignments is […]

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China and India – World’s Economic Growth Champions

Those two Asian giants are in the top five of world economies. They account for 35% of world population and for one-fourth of global economic demand and output. Last year, China and India economies soared, respectively, at annual rates of 8.1% and 8.9%. Estimates for this year call for more modest growth rates. Still, India […]

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Only a Deep Recession Can Restore U.S. and E.U. Price Stability

The accelerating inflation in the trans-Atlantic community is an unusually delayed reaction to long years of an extraordinarily excessive credit creation. But here we are. At the center of the unfolding economic crisis is a terminal unraveling of an unsustainable 78-years old global financial “arrangement.” The “arrangement” in question was an outgrowth of the Bretton […]

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With a Top Spot in Asia Trade, China Now Wants a Larger BRICS Membership

Based on data for the first quarter of this year, China’s trade with the 15 countries of Asia’s Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) rose at an annual rate of 6.9% to a total of $440 billion. Over the same period, Japan, China’s most vocal Asian competitor, booked only $228.5 billion of merchandise sale transactions with […]

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The World Economy Has Entered an Acute Phase of WWIII

Acts of Germany’s unconditional surrender signed in Reims on May 8, 1945, and in Berlin on May 9, 1945, have always been instruments of armistice rather than a lasting peace. The West’s tenuous alliance with the U.S.S.R. during the war was just a thinly veiled cover for a deep mistrust and hostility that led the […]

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U.S. “Pivot to Asia” Leaves China with a Soaring Trade Income

Since the U.S. announced its strategic rebalancing to Asia (aka “Pivot to Asia”) in 2012, China has pocketed a net income of $3.3 trillion on its American merchandise trades. China’s net exports have also greatly benefited from America’s recent economic recovery. After a marked slowdown in 2020, Beijing’s trade surplus with the U.S. increased 15% […]

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East Asia and India Are a Bright Spot of World Economy

That area produces 40% of global GDP and accounts for half of world population. At a time when we are facing a depressing economic outlook for the trans-Atlantic community, it is pleasing to note that major Asian economies offer growth prospects ranging from 2% in Japan to a sizzling 8% plus in India and possibly […]

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The Sinking E.U. Economy Needs No Trade Wars

By selling last year $485.8 billion more than it was buying, the European Union acted as a huge drag on global economy. And with a $2.2 trillion in net foreign trade income over the last five years, the Europeans showed they could live well off their trade partners. But that’s only part of the damage […]

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World Economy Hit by a Phoney War with China and a Total War with Russia

The Phoney War (aka “Drôle de guerre” in France and a “Sitzkrieg” in Germany) was a strangely quiet eight-month interval between the French and the British declaration of war against Germany on September 3, 1939, and the German invasion of France, Belgium and The Netherlands on May 10, 1940. Here is what that means, transposed […]

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The Dollar Remains an Irreplaceable Global Transactions Currency

The Bank for International Settlements – BIS, a “bank for central banks” that “fosters international monetary and financial cooperation” – reports that the dollar accounts for nearly 90% of transactions in a daily foreign exchange market of $7 trillion. The BIS also reports that this share of dollar’s forex trades has been stable over the […]

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A Complete Restructuring of the EU Economy Is Underway

“Do we want to destroy our national economy with our eyes wide open?” That’s the question asked by Martin Brudermüller, the CEO of BASF, a German owned world’s largest chemical company. His interview was prominently displayed for five consecutive days by Germany’s most influential center-right daily. The answer by the governing Green Party seems to […]

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America’s Election Cycle Economy

Democrats need three things – in order of importance -- to hold on to legislative and executive power in next November’s mid-term Congressional elections, and in the presidential contest in November 2024. One, the economy must stay clear of any major growth slowdown. Two, Donald Trump should be running again for the White House. Three, […]

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China Will Have to Review Its Economic Policies

“The war in Ukraine has rendered all election programs totally obsolete.” That’s the warning issued last Friday (March 18) by France’s former president François Hollande to put a new perspective on the country’s next month general elections. Most probably, China’s economic strategists would not disagree with that radical view when they take another look at […]

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The West’s Union Is Tested by a Looming Economic Recession

Washington is now blaming America’s soaring inflation on rising energy prices caused by the war in Ukraine that started on February 24, 2022. The mainstream media agree, but Americans know that their large losses of purchasing power over the last twelve months have nothing to do with the Ukrainian disaster. Over in Europe, the splendors […]

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U.S. Should Focus on Economic Growth

Some of you might say that this is a strange – or downright wrong – policy position to take at a time when the country is facing accelerating core inflation pressures. But that’s what I think. Yes, I believe that the U.S. should manage inflation with specifically targeted structural measures, instead of solely relying on […]

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