Dr Ivanovitch - MSI Global
Dr. Michael Ivanovitch is an independent analyst focusing on world economy, geopolitics and investment strategy. He served as a senior economist at the OECD in Paris, international economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and taught economics at Columbia Business School. 
Daily updates on world economy
Rising U.S. inflation is a threat to economic growth
China’s huge and growing domestic market drives the economy
The euro area survives on easy money and not much else
Flattening U.S. yield curve does not reflect rising inflation
  • U.S. chart gross

Recent Essays

Only a Recession Can Kill Accelerating Inflation

The U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) is misleading the public with statements that sharply accelerating price increases (aka price inflation) in the American economy are due to temporary and reversible external shocks. The subtext here is that this undeclared form of taxation is not caused by serious errors of the Fed’s monetary policy. Don’t believe […]

Read More
What Can the U.S. Expect from a Quest for Stronger German Ties?

Washington’s recent efforts to restore and invigorate close relations with Germany are an important part of a new architecture of Western world order. Accounting for one-fourth of the EU economy, and for nearly a third of the trans-Atlantic trade flows, Germany is an economic powerhouse that sets the pace to demand, output and employment in […]

Read More
China’s Most Difficult Phase of Economic Reforms

Systemic financial market changes in Western economies during the 1980s were routinely called “Big-Bang reforms.” That long, and still unfolding, process started in London and continued, in a much more radical fashion, in Paris, Frankfurt, Madrid, and many other European capitals to make possible the EU’s single market and the introduction of the common legal […]

Read More
The EU Is – and Will Remain – a Customs Union of Nation States

“(The German Chancellor Angela) Merkel will not be deciding who will live in Hungary” was a warning by the country’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban. Germany took that as a lèse-majesté of sorts at a time when Merkel was trying to rescue her disastrous open-door immigration policy in 2015 by dumping on the EU massive migrant […]

Read More
The U.S. Monetary Policy Cannot Deliver Full Employment and Stable Prices

Recent public statements of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) that labor market indicators will play a prominent role in its future policy settings are nothing new. By its charter, the Fed is bound to aim at “maximum employment” and “stable prices.” Practical and doctrinal issues with this policy mandate are still hotly debated. Starting with […]

Read More


America’s Costly and Uncertain Alliances

Fresh from a hollow U.S.-Russia summit in Geneva, and a failed attempt to round up European allies to confront Moscow and Beijing, the White House is reportedly planning to set up a U.S.-China summit on the margins of a G20 meeting in Italy next October. Washington’s obsession with summitry is a weird notion of national […]

Read More
France and Germany See Biden on a European Recruiting Mission

America’s key European allies seem unwilling to join Washington’s call for democracies to confront Russia and China. Germany says it does not need a “reset” in its relations with Russia. And, reflecting the views of its powerful business community, Berlin is clearly signaling that it won’t compromise €96 billion of its annual sales to China, […]

Read More
Washington Is Asked to Hold the European Union Together

One of Germany’s influential (conservative, and government-friendly) daily newspapers ran a headline last Tuesday that the French President Emmanuel Macron wanted to play the “EU’s first violin.” That says volumes about the French-German reconciliation, and the myth of the two-countries’ engine of the “European project,” a sort of mission impossible to transform a customs union […]

Read More
Biden Should Take Some of the Blame for His China Scare

President Joe Biden has been America’s distinguished public servant since January 1973. At the age of 30, he was one of the youngest senators in U.S. history. During 36 years, he held key posts in the U.S. Senate, including the chairmanship of the Foreign Relations Committee. Biden resigned from the Senate in 2009 to serve […]

Read More
The U.S. Should Use Trade to Reset Its China Policy

Recent American attempts to establish more productive U.S.-China relations hit a new impasse because Washington insisted on discussing Beijing’s well-known – and repeated ad nauseam -- red lines without bringing any new ideas that would be of interest to China. That’s what the world witnessed during a blistering on-camera confrontation during the meeting of top […]

Read More
A European Watershed Event: French Elections in May 2022

France has done it before. In May 2005, 55% of the French cast their ballots against the proposed EU Constitution on a voter turnout of 69%. But that was underestimating the EU elites. Four years later, they found a “workaround” (a fudge) in a Lisbon Treaty, to resuscitate the key provisions of a costly and […]

Read More
Trying to Contain and Isolate China Is a Mug’s Game

A quarter of last year’s China GDP growth of 2.3% is estimated to have come from the rest of a deeply depressed world economy. This year, nearly 2% of China’s economic growth of about 8% is expected to originate in its net exports. The U.S. will remain the largest single contributor to China’s stellar performance. […]

Read More
U.S. and EU Are Facing Accelerating Inflation

April 29, 2021

Read More
The U.S. Has All It Takes to Prevent Another Financial Crisis

April 21, 2021

Read More
The U.S. Is Sending Huge Stimulus Checks to China and Germany

April 13, 2021

Read More
1 2 3 4