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Dr Ivanovitch - MSI Global
Dr. Michael Ivanovitch is an independent analyst focusing on world economy, geopolitics and investment strategy. He served as a senior economist at the OECD in Paris, international economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and taught economics at Columbia Business School. 
Daily updates on world economy
Rising U.S. inflation is a threat to economic growth
China’s huge and growing domestic market drives the economy
The euro area survives on easy money and not much else
Flattening U.S. yield curve does not reflect rising inflation

Recent Essays

The U.S. and China Are on an Irreversible Collision Course

The European “sleepwalker” theorists are out. They want people to believe that nobody is responsible for the looming nuclear holocaust, but that, somehow, the world is just slipping toward the end of humanity. They are just parroting around the arrant nonsense of a “sleepwalking hypothesis” that supposedly led to World War I, causing 40 million […]

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The U.S. Economy Is in Recession. The E.U. Economy Is on the Same Path

During the first and second quarters of this year, the U.S. economy declined at seasonally adjusted annual rates of -1.6% and -0.9%, respectively. That is a textbook case of an economic recession. Undeterred, the U.S. government is denying a recession, grasping for all sorts of red herrings to argue that an economy seriously eroded by […]

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A Total War with Russia and (For Now) a Hybrid War with China Are Worsening the Trans-Atlantic Economic Downturn

With inflation rates driven to two-digit territories by soaring energy and food prices, the U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) and the European Central Bank (the ECB) are still in very early stages of their belated and hesitant efforts to restore price stability in their economies. That is a very difficult policy process that inevitably leads […]

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Inflation and Recession Are Part of America’s Inept Election Cycle Policies

Exhilarated by chasing Trump out of office, the victorious Democrats celebrated their control of legislative and executive power by offering an excessive and manifestly unaffordable fiscal stimulus, financed by an even more extravagant “free money” policy. Predictably, early signs of rising costs in tightening labor markets were blissfully ignored. And so was the relentless flareup […]

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Cancel the Group of Twenty: “All Politics Is Local”

Originally established by the trans-Atlantic community in 1999 to deal, at the ministerial level, with debt issues and financial stability, the G20 (i.e., The Group of Twenty) has served, since 2008, as an annual summit of global economic governance. That was supposed to be a final step in closing the gap left by the Bretton […]

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Archives

China Is Telling the West: Let’s Do Business; Forget Your One-Upmanship Tantrums

Washington’s China wooing is a long succession of “strategic ambiguity,” naivety, huge policy errors, and a current impasse dressed up at a NATO summit on June 28-30, 2022, as a “strategic competition” where Beijing presents a “challenge” to West’s “interests, security, and values” and seeks “to undermine the (West’s) rules-based international order.” A spectacular failure […]

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Stopping Accelerating Inflation – Without Tears – Is Impossible

The U.S. and euro area monetary authorities are facing an extremely difficult task of avoiding recessions while slowing, and reversing, their strong inflationary flareups. How they got themselves in that situation is a vacuous, blame-game argument. Suffice it to say that inflation is always, and everywhere, a monetary phenomenon. It follows, then, that inflations and […]

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Dollar Alternatives Are Becoming Technically and Politically Feasible

The increasing fragmentation of global trade and finance -- along the lines of interventionist liberal democracies and the rest of the world -- is impairing the role of the dollar as a unit of account, means of payment and a store of value. At the core of this rapidly unfolding process of economic realignments is […]

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China and India – World’s Economic Growth Champions

Those two Asian giants are in the top five of world economies. They account for 35% of world population and for one-fourth of global economic demand and output. Last year, China and India economies soared, respectively, at annual rates of 8.1% and 8.9%. Estimates for this year call for more modest growth rates. Still, India […]

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Only a Deep Recession Can Restore U.S. and E.U. Price Stability

The accelerating inflation in the trans-Atlantic community is an unusually delayed reaction to long years of an extraordinarily excessive credit creation. But here we are. At the center of the unfolding economic crisis is a terminal unraveling of an unsustainable 78-years old global financial “arrangement.” The “arrangement” in question was an outgrowth of the Bretton […]

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With a Top Spot in Asia Trade, China Now Wants a Larger BRICS Membership

Based on data for the first quarter of this year, China’s trade with the 15 countries of Asia’s Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) rose at an annual rate of 6.9% to a total of $440 billion. Over the same period, Japan, China’s most vocal Asian competitor, booked only $228.5 billion of merchandise sale transactions with […]

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The World Economy Has Entered an Acute Phase of WWIII

Acts of Germany’s unconditional surrender signed in Reims on May 8, 1945, and in Berlin on May 9, 1945, have always been instruments of armistice rather than a lasting peace. The West’s tenuous alliance with the U.S.S.R. during the war was just a thinly veiled cover for a deep mistrust and hostility that led the […]

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U.S. “Pivot to Asia” Leaves China with a Soaring Trade Income

Since the U.S. announced its strategic rebalancing to Asia (aka “Pivot to Asia”) in 2012, China has pocketed a net income of $3.3 trillion on its American merchandise trades. China’s net exports have also greatly benefited from America’s recent economic recovery. After a marked slowdown in 2020, Beijing’s trade surplus with the U.S. increased 15% […]

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East Asia and India Are a Bright Spot of World Economy

That area produces 40% of global GDP and accounts for half of world population. At a time when we are facing a depressing economic outlook for the trans-Atlantic community, it is pleasing to note that major Asian economies offer growth prospects ranging from 2% in Japan to a sizzling 8% plus in India and possibly […]

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The Sinking E.U. Economy Needs No Trade Wars

By selling last year $485.8 billion more than it was buying, the European Union acted as a huge drag on global economy. And with a $2.2 trillion in net foreign trade income over the last five years, the Europeans showed they could live well off their trade partners. But that’s only part of the damage […]

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