China’s long-delayed official announcement of a summit meeting on the sidelines of APEC proceedings in San Francisco November 11-17, 2023, speaks volumes about Beijing’s view of the bilateral relations between the world’s two largest economies.

Apart from an obvious intention to make Washington appear as a supplicant, China’s official media thought there was nothing new the two heads of state needed to talk about. All was said, they argued, about the principles guiding the two countries relationship during the summit held at the time of the G20 meeting in Bali (Indonesia) on November 15-16, 2022.

The Chinese have a point, because the readout of that meeting in Bali shows that the two leaders addressed most of the fundamental U.S.-China issues, with the follow-up action to be carried out by high-level working groups.

The U.S. President Joe Biden said that the two countries had a responsibility to “keep constructive relationship,” to talk candidly about problems they disagree on, and to cooperate on climate change, food security and other global challenges.

Irreconcilable differences

Biden said the U.S. respects “China’s system,” does not seek to change it or to create alliances against China. U.S. has no intention of “decoupling” from China, to “contain” China or to “halt” China’s economic development.

Biden reassured China that the U.S. (a) was committed to the “one-China” policy, (b) “does not support Taiwan’s independence,” (c) will not use Taiwan as a tool to contain China and (d) wants peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.

Biden, therefore, checked all of China’s red line boxes.

China’s President Xi Jinping emphasized that relations with the U.S. should be defined by mutual respect, dialogue, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation rather than “zero-sum competition” where one side “thrives” at the expense of the other.

Taiwan, he said, was “the core of China’s core interests,” “the bedrock of … China-U.S. relations and the first red line that must not be crossed” – because Taiwan is an internal matter for China.

Xi reminded that President Biden has said on many occasions that the U.S. does not support “Taiwan independence,” and that Taiwan will not be used as a tool to contain China. And he concluded by saying that China hopes “the U.S. will match its words with actions and abide by the one-China policy and the three China-U.S. communiques.”

That last paragraph tells it all: Beijing has lost trust in U.S. assurances. Hence an apparent belief that the next summit will not change anything in America’s hostile Indo-Pacific policies, and in a panoply of trade and investment limitations aimed at damaging China’s economy.

U.S. and China are worlds apart

Consider the issue of Taiwan. According to media reports, Taiwan has $14 billion of military orders in the U.S. It has also recently received a modest grant from Washington to purchase American arms. Beijing reacted by saying that it “deplores and opposes” the U.S. action, pointing out that this was inconsistent with America’s commitment to the one-China policy.

For China, that is a blatant breach of its first red line that “must not be crossed.”

And then, there are active anti-China alliances, such as the one formed by the U.S., Japan and South Korea, AUKUS (Australia, U.K., U.S.) and QUAD (Australia, India, Japan and U.S.).

Trade and finance bilateral issues are also in a fiercely competitive mode, despite promises of no decoupling. U.S. sanctions, trade tariffs, export and investment limitations are firmly in place.

All China will get are more flights to the U.S., cultural, scientific and student exchanges.

Military contacts with China are a top U.S. priority to avoid lethal confrontations. That means the Democrats will maintain a tough China policy during the election year because Republicans target them as weak-on-China “wet noodles” and “panda huggers.”

Despite all that, the U.S. wants to get assurances from China of a status quo in the Taiwan Strait, and cooperation in Middle East and Ukraine wars.

Washington is apparently afraid that China will try to take Taiwan by force while American military capabilities are overstretched helping Israel and Ukraine.

The U.S. wants China’s support in holding off Iran’s financial and military engagement in the Israeli-Palestinian fighting. Beijing is Teheran’s top customer, buying an average of 1.05 million barrels per day of Iranian oil during the first 10 months of this year.

Russia is another U.S. problem where China’s help will be solicited. But that will be a much tougher call because of a strong Sino-Russian strategic partnership.

Helping U.S. against Iran and Russia would be a serious mistake Beijing will not make.

The U.S. and China are worlds apart. Their collision course is still the only clear itinerary. And the best outcome that Biden-Xi summit in San Francisco could deliver is an emergency trouble shooting during the election year. A very long shot indeed.