World Economy Is Caught Up in A Broadening Global Conflict

Dr Ivanovitch - MSI Global
Dr. Michael Ivanovitch

None of the currently active war theaters is nearing a peaceful conclusion. Sadly, they are becoming intractably expanding bloodbaths or uncompromising fields of confrontation.

It has been decades now that the Middle East war ceased to be synonymous with Arab-Israeli fighting. The Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s lit up the fuse that led to American invasions of Iraq. That was followed by the civil war in Syria and the ongoing Iran-Israeli proxy wars through various military formations based in Lebanon, Palestine and Arabian Peninsula.

The Israeli response to last October’s attack by Hamas – a Palestinian political and military movement – is still under way, causing a destruction of the Palestinian Gaza Strip, loss of nearly 40 thousand lives, and counting.

Israel’s adamant opposition to the creation of the Palestinian state is the end to an elusive quest for a permanent solution to the core issue of the Middle East crisis. The road is now open to an Iran-Israeli war – which will inevitably become a great power military conflict.

The war in Ukraine is another example of a total security breakdown. The U.S.-led military and political alliance claims it is fighting Russia’s “imperial ambitions in post-Soviet states,” while Moscow invokes a defense against West’s assault on its statehood and territorial integrity.

U.S. security challenges and a weakening economy

Washington, therefore, has to reconsider its national interest in escalating military operations against a nuclear-armed adversary determined to secure its western borders and to consolidate the defenses of the Eurasian world.

As things now stand, a peaceful compromise seems possible only if introspective “America First” policy choices of the Republican frontrunner were to prevail in the forthcoming election.

And then there is a problem of how to deal with China, and an unrelenting revival of frozen and potential conflicts in East Asia.

The U.S. and its allies have declared China a party to Russia’s war effort, alleging that Beijing is supplying Moscow with dual use (private/military) technologies. China’s large purchases of Russian oil and gas are also seen as a critically important support to Russia’s military capabilities.

Apart from that, the U.S. and its allies consider China a security risk for its allegedly (1) illegal territorial claims in East and South China Seas, (2) threats to Taiwan’s status quo, (3) “economic extortion” to force political and economic compliance of its trade partners, and (4) non-market trade practices with subsidized exports and predatory pricing.

The Korean Peninsula is another long-standing crisis spot in East Asia. Indeed, the unstable 71-year-old Korean armistice is arguably one of the world’s most dangerous frozen conflicts. The U.S. maintains its largest overseas military base in South Korea with 28,500 troops, and North Korea keeps expanding the volume and range of its nuclear arms arsenal.

In that context, increasingly close and structured political, economic and military ties among Russia, China and North Korea represent a formidable de facto alliance, and a force to be reckoned with in the entire Indo-Pacific theater.

U.S. should review national interests and priorities

Those are the key strategic challenges facing the U.S. at a time of its unsustainably imbalanced economy, deteriorating public finances and soaring external liabilities. Washington is also facing questions about the resolve of its Asian and European allies to share the burden of a growing confrontation with Russia and China.

The U.S. economic issues are overwhelming. The monetary policy is in initial phases of an easing process, while a budget deficit of 8% of the GDP indicates a wildly expansionary fiscal stance. Such excesses may well be part of an election year, but a service sector price inflation of 5%, unit labor costs growing 4% and a sky-rocketing national debt are signals of a tightening policy mix in the months ahead.

To make matters worse, problems in U.S. labor markets are increasing. The unemployment rate in June rose to 4.1% from 3.5% a year earlier. Over the same period, the number of unemployed shot up 13%, with a civilian population out of the labor force rising to 100.4 million. Those are the people who are unemployable for lack of skills and professional qualifications.

The outlook for E.U. economies is much more worrying. Demand and output are virtually stagnant, public debt is rising and a sticky service sector inflation is delaying monetary easing.

Under those circumstances, America’s major European allies are eager to maintain sound trade relations with China, and some of them want to keep their access to Russian energy supplies and business opportunities. That, they argue, is nothing strange in view of Washington’s $222.6 billion trade with China during the first five months of this year -- and continuing business transactions with Russia.

East Asia shows a much stronger commitment to trade and investments with China and Russia. China is by far the largest trade partner for ASEAN (ten Southeast Asian countries), Japan and South Korea. All of them also trade with Russia.

Washington has to take a closer look at all that – as did the former president Barack Obama in May 2012. After spending $1.4 trillion on wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, Obama urged that it was time to “focus on nation building here at home.”

That was three years before the former President Donald Trump campaigned with “America First” and MAGA (“Make America Great Again”) slogans that still strongly resonate in this election.

With a dismal potential and noninflationary economic growth rate of 1.8%, an out-of-control public debt of $35 trillion and runaway net foreign liabilities of $21.28 trillion – America has to review its principal national interests and urgent priorities.