East Asia Is India’s Market
About one-fifth of India’s trade is currently conducted in East Asia. China and ten countries of Southeast Asia (ASEAN) account for most of those trade transactions. And that’s where India should concentrate efforts to integrate its economy with the fastest growing part of global demand and outp...
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E.U. Is Facing Difficult Trade Policy Choices
With its economic growth of 1.65% in the first half of this year, the European Union is hitting the physical limits to its demand and output. That partly explains the European Central Bank’s reluctance to ease credit conditions to offset fiscal tightening in several major member country economies....
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U.S. Is Orchestrating a Global Trade Adjustment Process
America’s “trade tariffs war,” universally denounced by mainstream media, is a simpler version of provisions in the IMF’s original charter imposing symmetric obligations on deficit and surplus countries to adjust their external trade accounts. In the early years of IMF’s operation (1944-45...
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Southeast Asia’s Growth Driven by China and Indonesia
With an economy of $4 trillion and a population of 670 million, the ten Southeast Asian nations (ASEAN*) are expected to grow about 5% this year. That is by far the highest growth rate of any similar regional trading blocs, and more than three times faster than the world’s most advanced economies....
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The Euro Area Could Easily Absorb the Shock of Higher U.S. Trade Tariffs
With a budget deficit of 3.1% of GDP, an inflation rate of 2%, the euro’s effective appreciation of 7% since the beginning of this year and a trade surplus of $114 billion, the European monetary union has plenty of room to offset a recessionary shock to its weak economy in case of problems with ex...
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China’s Trade Is Anchored in East Asia and in the Rest of Global South
Based on data for the first five months of this year, ASEAN (ten Southeast Asian countries), Japan and South Korea accounted for nearly one-third of China’s foreign trade. Adding to that the remaining nine BRICS members, ten partner countries, and steady trade relations in Central Asia, Africa and...
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The U.S. Economy Would Hugely Benefit from Productive Big Power Relations
The news last week that a trade agreement with China was finalized, and that similar deals would soon be reached with ten major trade partners, drove American stock market valuations to their record high level. That is exactly the opposite of what happened in early February when Washington announced...
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The U.S. Economic Outlook Is Clouded by Fiscal and Trade Problems
Driven by an exceptionally strong fiscal stimulus and a supportive monetary policy, American domestic demand (consisting of household consumption, residential investments, business investments and government spending) soared 3.5% in the first three months of this year from the same period of 2024. T...
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Asia Is Regrouping in Response to Changing Trade Policies
Malaysia chaired last week (May 26, 2025), an ASEAN (ten South-East Asian nations) annual summit in Kuala Lumpur. That was followed by a trilateral summit with China and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC, consisting of Bahrein, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates). What’s at...
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China’s Changing Trade Patterns Are Reflecting a New World Order
Unlike some other major global powers, China has always treated trade and investments as part of its fundamental development strategy. In that context, political and security considerations played a crucial role in guiding the direction and volume of its business transactions. Beijing has, therefore...
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