The U.S. Wants to Prop up China Guardrails for Next Year Elections
China’s long-delayed official announcement of a summit meeting on the sidelines of APEC proceedings in San Francisco November 11-17, 2023, speaks volumes about Beijing’s view of the bilateral relations between the world’s two largest economies. Apart from an obvious intention to make Washingto...
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The U.S. Federal Reserve Supports World Economy. The Rest Is Political Noise
Getting kudos from Wall Street is a very rare feat. But that unrivaled trading place conceded last week that the Fed won the bet on U.S. economy. Traders drove the S&P 500 in a breathless climb that accounted for nearly half of the year-to-date gain on the iconic stock index. The rest of the wor...
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A U.S.-China “Dialogue” Can Only Be a Permanent Crisis Management
Washington has been very successful in convincing China to participate in a flurry of high-level meetings and working group consultations while side-stepping fundamental disagreements on core red lines and world order issues. This weekend’s hottest media headlines are that American and Chinese top...
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U.S. Can Avoid Recession. Asia’s Robust Growth Will Support World Economy
Errors of monetary policy have established an inflation-recession reasoning about the growth patterns of American economy. The good part is that such reasoning explains the error and points the way to avoid it. The error stems from an old axiom of monetary theory positing that recessions and inflati...
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Economic Policies Set Back by Intractable Geopolitics
Transition to a new world order was never going to be quick, smooth and easy. Acquired and long-held positions of power and privilege will not be given up without a long, costly and exhausting confrontation. American bankers see that much better than the Beltway’s political establishment. Despite ...
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China’s Rapidly Shrinking Trade with the U.S. and the E.U.
Economic and financial relations are always a mirror image of social and political interactions between governments or trading blocs. That state of affairs may not obtain at any particular point in time, but it always, and everywhere, ends up in a perfect correspondence between economic and politica...
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A Pause to Assess the Impact of American Monetary Policy Is a Good Idea
After more than a decade of excessively loose policies, the U.S. monetary authorities (the Fed) decided early last year to “normalize” credit conditions and restore price stability. During that period, the policy interest rate – formally known as the effective federal funds rate -- has been ra...
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The U.S. Economy Will Continue to Drive Global Growth
Current estimates show that the limping American economy will still make a trillion-dollar contribution to world’s demand and output this year and next. North America (Canada and Mexico), European Union and China are the largest beneficiaries of the U.S. foreign trade. In the first seven months of...
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The G-20 Summit Has Become a Useless and Hopelessly Split Global Forum
An instrument of power is bound to break down in a community of sovereign nations pursuing irreconcilably hostile geopolitical objectives. The just finished G-20 summit in India showed – once again -- that “strategic and systemic rivalry,” sweeping sanctions, hybrid and proxy wars are incompat...
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China’s Economy Is Fine, But Beijing’s Worldview Needs a Tweak
In one of his expansive speeches, President Xi Jinping assured his audience that “China’s economy is an ocean …” I was often reminded of that moment while looking at vacuous claims that some cyclical or structural problems would sink the economy that is home to nearly one-fifth of humanity. ...
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