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Dr Ivanovitch - MSI Global
Dr. Michael Ivanovitch is an independent analyst focusing on world economy, geopolitics and investment strategy. He served as a senior economist at the OECD in Paris, international economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and taught economics at Columbia Business School. 
Daily updates on world economy
Rising U.S. inflation is a threat to economic growth
China’s huge and growing domestic market drives the economy
The euro area survives on easy money and not much else
Flattening U.S. yield curve does not reflect rising inflation

Recent Essays

U.S. “Pivot to Asia” Leaves China with a Soaring Trade Income

Since the U.S. announced its strategic rebalancing to Asia (aka “Pivot to Asia”) in 2012, China has pocketed a net income of $3.3 trillion on its American merchandise trades. China’s net exports have also greatly benefited from America’s recent economic recovery. After a marked slowdown in 2020, Beijing’s trade surplus with the U.S. increased 15% […]

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East Asia and India Are a Bright Spot of World Economy

That area produces 40% of global GDP and accounts for half of world population. At a time when we are facing a depressing economic outlook for the trans-Atlantic community, it is pleasing to note that major Asian economies offer growth prospects ranging from 2% in Japan to a sizzling 8% plus in India and possibly […]

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The Sinking E.U. Economy Needs No Trade Wars

By selling last year $485.8 billion more than it was buying, the European Union acted as a huge drag on global economy. And with a $2.2 trillion in net foreign trade income over the last five years, the Europeans showed they could live well off their trade partners. But that’s only part of the damage […]

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World Economy Hit by a Phoney War with China and a Total War with Russia

The Phoney War (aka “Drôle de guerre” in France and a “Sitzkrieg” in Germany) was a strangely quiet eight-month interval between the French and the British declaration of war against Germany on September 3, 1939, and the German invasion of France, Belgium and The Netherlands on May 10, 1940. Here is what that means, transposed […]

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The Dollar Remains an Irreplaceable Global Transactions Currency

The Bank for International Settlements – BIS, a “bank for central banks” that “fosters international monetary and financial cooperation” – reports that the dollar accounts for nearly 90% of transactions in a daily foreign exchange market of $7 trillion. The BIS also reports that this share of dollar’s forex trades has been stable over the […]

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Archives

A Complete Restructuring of the EU Economy Is Underway

“Do we want to destroy our national economy with our eyes wide open?” That’s the question asked by Martin Brudermüller, the CEO of BASF, a German owned world’s largest chemical company. His interview was prominently displayed for five consecutive days by Germany’s most influential center-right daily. The answer by the governing Green Party seems to […]

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America’s Election Cycle Economy

Democrats need three things – in order of importance -- to hold on to legislative and executive power in next November’s mid-term Congressional elections, and in the presidential contest in November 2024. One, the economy must stay clear of any major growth slowdown. Two, Donald Trump should be running again for the White House. Three, […]

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China Will Have to Review Its Economic Policies

“The war in Ukraine has rendered all election programs totally obsolete.” That’s the warning issued last Friday (March 18) by France’s former president François Hollande to put a new perspective on the country’s next month general elections. Most probably, China’s economic strategists would not disagree with that radical view when they take another look at […]

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The West’s Union Is Tested by a Looming Economic Recession

Washington is now blaming America’s soaring inflation on rising energy prices caused by the war in Ukraine that started on February 24, 2022. The mainstream media agree, but Americans know that their large losses of purchasing power over the last twelve months have nothing to do with the Ukrainian disaster. Over in Europe, the splendors […]

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U.S. Should Focus on Economic Growth

Some of you might say that this is a strange – or downright wrong – policy position to take at a time when the country is facing accelerating core inflation pressures. But that’s what I think. Yes, I believe that the U.S. should manage inflation with specifically targeted structural measures, instead of solely relying on […]

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Inflation Is the Key Problem of World Economy

A legendary investor is now betting against the U.S. and the rest of world economy. Warren Buffet, a man presiding over a $714 billion fortune of Berkshire Hathaway, is holding cash because he finds nothing to buy -- after raising his wealth 26.8% last year. Many people will find Buffet’s market pessimism hard to take […]

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Only Rising Energy Supplies Could Quickly Cut Inflation

After months of implausible assertions that an accelerating inflation was a “transitory and reversible” event, the U.S. and Eurozone monetary authorities have finally recognized that increasing price pressures were stronger and more deeply rooted than they thought. The implication of that radically revised inflation outlook is that American and euro area economies are now on […]

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Ukraine and Taiwan Have Nothing to do with U.S. Inflation, Debts and Deficits

Financial markets are being drawn into an intensifying whirlwind of information warfare with Russia and China. The alleged Sino-Russian “aggression” against the Western world order has not caused a sharply accelerating U.S. inflation with the exploding public debt and budget deficits. But that’s what the mainstream media are now peddling to “explain” America’s rising interest […]

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Rising Inflation Remains an Acute Geopolitical Problem

Economic historians know all about inflationary finance to pay for wars and power politics. In the post WWII period, French analysts argued that Anglo-American efforts to sustain their global dominance led to the subversion and death of the gold standard. That, they claimed, ushered in uncontrollable inflation engines – the gold-exchange standard, followed by the […]

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Will the Euro Area Assets Beat Wall Street?

Being the dollar’s main competitor, the euro does not have good press. Ill-informed financial market analysts continue to question the euro’s finality. They don’t understand that the European currency is the irreversible legal tender of an economic and political union weaved around a deeply integrated French-German policy making. Those analysts are now recommending developing economies’ […]

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