Dr Ivanovitch - MSI Global
Dr. Michael Ivanovitch is an independent analyst focusing on world economy, geopolitics and investment strategy. He served as a senior economist at the OECD in Paris, international economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and taught economics at Columbia Business School. 
Daily updates on world economy
Rising U.S. inflation is a threat to economic growth
China’s huge and growing domestic market drives the economy
The euro area survives on easy money and not much else
Flattening U.S. yield curve does not reflect rising inflation

Recent Essays

U.S. Trade Clashes with China Will Get Worse

The last week’s meeting of U.S. and China trade officials in Washington confirmed one more time that commerce and finance between the world’s two largest economies cannot make progress in the context of increasingly adversarial political and security relations. That also showed that the U.S. mantra of open lines of communication with China was no […]

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Inflation and Fiscal Imbalances Must be Reduced to Stabilize G7 Economies

With probably minor exceptions in Japan and in some E.U. countries, the entire burden of the G7 macroeconomic stabilization will fall on monetary policies. Traditionally, that is the preferred modus operandi because politicians find their way out by blaming inflations and declining economic growth on nominally independent central banks. The general public, and, sadly, a […]

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China’s Uphill Battle to Hold on to U.S. and E.U. Markets

A strange dialogue of the deaf between the U.S. and China has reached a stage where the countries’ leaders have nothing new to say to each other, while the Pentagon cannot even talk to China’s sanctions stricken top military commander. After decades of miscalculations since the late 1970s that trade, investments and economic development would […]

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World Economy Is Fragmenting Along Geostrategic Blocs

Data for transborder trade flows in the first quarter of this year are showing the fallout from political and military confrontations of the trans-Atlantic community with Russia and China. That evidence leaves no room for speculations and double speak. The lines are clearly drawn and understood. The losers are disingenuously claiming that they were not […]

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India’s G20 Presidency Struggles with a Hopelessly Divided World Economy

The main theme for this year’s summit of the world’s largest economies is derived from Hindu’s timeless concept that ‘the world is our family” (“Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam”). The hosts of the forthcoming G20 meeting of heads of state and government in New Delhi on September 9-10, 2023, have extended the wisdom of Maha Upanishad Sanskrit scriptures […]

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China and Brazil in a “Great Leap Forward”

With a sharply slowing economic growth, and a one-fifth of its population living under poverty line, Brazil is looking up to China as an export market and a source of investments to expand and modernize its resource rich economy. That was the key mission of Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva during his state […]

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Financial Stability Trumps Inflation Concerns

Washington’s attempts to push inflation to the back burner is a manipulative move to stop monetary tightening. The priority now is a return to massive liquidity injections to prevent recession and systemic problems in the trans-Atlantic financial services industry. The outcome of that policy change will be a delayed, deeper and long-lasting recession, with a […]

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Asia Remains the World’s Economic Powerhouse

While the growth outlook for developed economies looks increasingly gloomy, forecasts for demand and output in emerging and developing Asian countries are constantly upgraded. The latest estimate puts Asia’s economic growth for this year at 5.3%, indicating vastly different business cycle dynamics compared with those in mismanaged and recession bound U.S. and European economies. China […]

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Geopolitics Are Shifting World’s Trade Patterns

Testifying last week in front of a hostile House Ways and Means Committee, the U.S. Trade Representative (part of the Executive Office of the President) made a startling statement that traditional trade policy instruments had become ineffective. As expected, China was at the center of policy concern as lawmakers kept blasting the government for failing […]

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America’s Long and Uncertain Road to Stable and Peaceful Economy

The governing Democrats have opened a new chapter in the electoral cycle of the U.S. economy. High inflation, wobbly financial system, parlous public finances, slowing economy and far-flung proxy wars make them virtually unelectable. The only thing they have going for them are their weak and unappealing Republican opponents. Hence the Democrats’ apparent readiness to […]

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Asia’s Rapidly Changing Security Landscape

Some Asian archenemies are coming together, some are spoiling for the fight while diffident fence-sitters dread the economic and political consequences of having to choose sides. Despite deep-seated hostilities and contested territorial claims, Japan and South Korea showed signs this week that they were ready to settle their grievous legacies of occupation, hideous war crimes […]

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The G20 Has Become the Forum of Bitter Bloc Confrontations

The meeting of the G20 finance officials in India last week is an ominous reminder that this potentially useful venue of international economic policy coordination is torn apart by irreconcilable ideological and systemic differences of major world powers. Disagreements ran so deeply that, once again, no customary joint communiqué could be issued. The Indian government […]

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The High Political Cost of Restoring Price Stability

Driving down America’s consolidating core inflation in the runup to an election year is a no-win scenario. That’s the story the gullible politicians don’t want to hear. But they will have to, because there is no way of escaping a growth recession after decades of unbalanced monetary, fiscal and foreign trade policies that led to […]

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China and India: Doing Brisk Business Despite Contested Border Claims

Having unsuccessfully tried to drive a wedge between Russia and China, geopolitical strategists have now turned their attention to an enigmatic odd couple of the world’s largest democracy and a rapidly developing communist superpower. To that end, the Indo-Pacific region has been invented as a new geostrategic concept to include India, with clearly stated political, […]

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Interest Rate Hikes Will Kill the U.S. and E.U. Economies. There Is a Better Way Out

At a time of a raging war in Europe and increasingly hostile environments in east Asia and in the Middle East, it is understandable that the American and European monetary authorities are gun-shy to beat inflation at the cost of declining output, jobs and incomes. Abandoning their ill-judged claims that accelerating inflation was a “temporary […]

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